Hi Carlos, great write up and digging into competitors. I am a fellow shareholder and I am reviewing my thesis/position.
I have estimated 934m revenue and 28.9m EBIT for 2023 (conservative 3.09% margin), it will be interesting to see what they post year-end :)
The main risk I see is being overrun by competitors (Dino growth in particular is quite scary). However if it plays out like it did in my home country (UK) over the last decade then the bigger players will look to acquire in good locations. Have you heard of any approaches being snubbed by management thus far? They seem to be astute owners and so I would imagine if the price was right they would make the best decision for shareholders, if it did play out this way.
P.S. If you would like to chat about this company or other ideas I am looking for someone to share/network with. Reach out if it interests you :)
It is true that competition could be a problem, but Dino Polska is a different type of supermarket, bigger than the ones Delko has as general, each type of supermarket has its own area where it works better. Although it is true that as the market consolidates, the weaker Delko's negotiating position as a distributor will be. However, I am not too worried about it this prices , I think there is enough market and it is the family stores that are really in danger.
Feel free to contact me on Twitter @carlosag_92, I am always open to talk about companies.
Hi Carlos, great write up and digging into competitors. I am a fellow shareholder and I am reviewing my thesis/position.
I have estimated 934m revenue and 28.9m EBIT for 2023 (conservative 3.09% margin), it will be interesting to see what they post year-end :)
The main risk I see is being overrun by competitors (Dino growth in particular is quite scary). However if it plays out like it did in my home country (UK) over the last decade then the bigger players will look to acquire in good locations. Have you heard of any approaches being snubbed by management thus far? They seem to be astute owners and so I would imagine if the price was right they would make the best decision for shareholders, if it did play out this way.
P.S. If you would like to chat about this company or other ideas I am looking for someone to share/network with. Reach out if it interests you :)
Thank you for your kind words,
It is true that competition could be a problem, but Dino Polska is a different type of supermarket, bigger than the ones Delko has as general, each type of supermarket has its own area where it works better. Although it is true that as the market consolidates, the weaker Delko's negotiating position as a distributor will be. However, I am not too worried about it this prices , I think there is enough market and it is the family stores that are really in danger.
Feel free to contact me on Twitter @carlosag_92, I am always open to talk about companies.